Migration order, system and regime analysis and development of future migration scenarios

Migration Department

Project head: Dr. Franck Düvell

We are currently experiencing a fundamental global change. The rise of the BRICS and MINT states as new economic powers, the increasing social and demographic imbalances and geopolitical changes, which are evident in conflicts, social movements and uprisings in the immediate vicinity of the European Union, but also the developments towards a possible "fourth industrial revolution" and, last but not least, climate change, are leading to increasing geographical mobility, migration and new flight movements. All this affects the position of individual states within the global migration order. In Germany, as in other industrialised countries, the population is ageing and shrinking and there is a shortage of skilled workers. The project should serve to understand the role of the Federal Republic of Germany both in the regional migration order and as a destination country of migration in the regional context.

Results: Using Russia and Turkey as examples, the multiple drivers of migration, migration infrastructure and national migration regimes were analysed and the model of a multipolar global migration order was developed. Several quantitative prediction methods were examined and applied to Germany. It became apparent that long-term predictions can hardly be made with the available data. This resulted in a manual for users of such forecasting models, a research report, a briefing note and several conference papers. In addition, a technical paper on the concept of migration governance was written.

Publications:

Sardoschau, Sulin (2020): The Future of Migration to Germany: Assessing Methods in Migration Forecasting. DeZIM Project Report, Berlin: German Centre for Integration and Migration Research (DeZIM). 

Sardoschau, Sulin (2020): The Future of Migration to Germany: Assessing methods in migration forecasting. DeZIM Briefing Notes, Berlin: German Centre for Integration and Migration Research (DeZIM).

Funding: Federal Ministry of Family Affairs, Senior Citizens, Women and Youth (Institutional funding)