Paralysis or Mobilization? Analyzing the Societal Impact of Right-Wing Populist Electoral Success

Consensus and Conflict Department

Project head: Dr. Jannes Jacobsen ,  Dr. Friederike Römer ,  Dr. Elias Steinhilper

Project team members: Dr. Jakob Henninger

In the state elections in three eastern German states in September 2024, the nationalist and partly far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) could, for the first time, emerge as the strongest party at the state level. If this occurs, the party may be able to translate its ideology into concrete policies, potentially with far-reaching consequences for the population. Against this backdrop, this project examines how AfD electoral success affects people living in Germany, particularly groups most directly impacted by the party’s agenda, including migrants and racialized minorities.

Using an experimental research design, the study analyzes how AfD election results in the 2024 state elections in Thuringia and Saxony and the 2025 federal election influence mental health, (institutional) trust, emigration plans, and political (de)mobilization. The primary data source is the DeZIM.panel, a representative longitudinal study, while additional data comes from the NaDiRa.panel through a collaboration with the NaDiRa project. While the DeZIM.panel focuses on the general population, the NaDiRa.panel specifically captures the experiences of racialized groups, allowing for both independent and comparative analyses of the societal consequences of AfD electoral gains.

Funding: Federal Ministry of Family Affairs, Senior Citizens, Women and Youth (Institutional funding)