Pilot phase Data4Refugees

Migration Department

Project head: Dr. Franck Düvell

In June 2018, the pilot phase of an interdisciplinary project (economics, sociology, engineering, mathematics) started under the leadership of Dr Franck Düvell, initially at the University of Oxford, which was continued as a cooperation between the two institutions until July 2019 due to Franck Düvell's move to the DeZIM Institute. The pilot project tested (a) the potential of Big Data for migration research, (b) Bayesian Machine Learning methods using the example of Syrian refugees in Turkey, and (c) the cooperation between mathematics, engineering and social sciences. The study investigated the geographical distribution, economic integration and mobility (trade, work) of Syrian refugees in comparison to citizens in Turkey. The call for proposals for the project "Data4Refugees", which was carried out in cooperation with UN organisations such as UNHCR and UNICEF as well as Turkish civil society organisations, had the goal of improving the integration and living conditions of refugees in Turkey. For this purpose, the team was provided with an anonymised data set that does not contain any personal data.

The project pursued a quantitative analysis. In a first step, a secondary analysis of macro-ethnographic and micro-ethnographic data and literature was conducted. In the second step, MatLab was used, algorithms based on 'weak assumptions' for data analysis were developed and then Bayesian Machine Learning was applied (unsupervised Bayesian data analysis, Independent Classifier Combination Algorithm (IBCC)).

Results: The results of the pilot project are encouraging. First, the collaboration of researchers from three very different disciplines - engineering, economics and micro-sociology - was successful. For example, ethnographic findings from another project were used to make assumptions that then formed the basis of the algorithms. We were able to show that Big Data and a Bayesian method can be used for migration and integration research. As a result, we created 'heat maps' that depict the usage patterns of mobile phone data and allow conclusions to be drawn about the economic behaviour and status of Syrian refugees. To prevent possible misuse, crucial parts of the method were not published. The data from the pilot project will remain in the hands of the consortium so that it can be used for follow-up projects. The preparation of a follow-up application to the UK's ESRC, planned for 2019, has been postponed for the time being. The pilot produced two outputs: a conference paper, "New Approaches to the Study of Spatial Mobility and Economic Integration of Refugees in Turkey" (21.1.2019, Istanbul) and "Employment Demographics of Refugees in Turkey: A Bayesian Probabilistic Approach using Weak Social Science Models" (8.7.2019, Oxford), and a final report, "New Approaches to the Study of Spatial Mobility and Economic Integration of Refugees in Turkey?"

Funding: Federal Ministry of Family Affairs, Senior Citizens, Women and Youth (Institutional funding)

Cooperation partner:

Dr Steven Reece, Engineering Science, University of Oxford; Carlos Vargas-Silva, COMPAS, University of Oxford; Türk Telekom (provision of data set)