Concerns about immigration and demand for social protection

How are concerns about immigration related to demand for social protection? The “anti-solidarity” hypothesis states that immigration reduces demand for welfare policies because citizens lack solidarity with non-citizens who they fear will access these schemes. According to the “compensation” hypothesis, however, demand for welfare will increase as a reaction to concerns about immigration. This article argues that contextual factors explain which of these two effects will prevail and introduces the political regime as one such factor: Authoritarian regimes are more likely to restrict immigrants’ access to welfare benefits than democracies. Hence, persons holding immigration-related concerns in autocracies may more readily demand social protection policies knowing that immigrants will be excluded. Therefore, I hypothesize that in authoritarian contexts, immigration-related concerns are more strongly associated with demands for social protection policies than in democracies. I find evidence for this hypothesis using World Values Survey data (2017–2022) on 42 countries in a multi-level model.