Migration aspirations of Syrian refugees in Turkey against the background of their family situation

• With the outbreak of the Syrian civil war in 2011, Turkey became the main host country worldwide for Syrian refugees. According to official figures, around 3.6 million people from Syria were living there under temporary protection status in 2018. Between 2011 and 2019, many of them continued onward to the European Union, including to Germany. However, many also remained in Turkey, not least because onward migration was made more difficult following the EU–Turkey agreement in 2016. Little was known about the onward migration intentions of Syrians who remained in Turkey, or about the resources required to enable such migration.
• The project therefore examined the migration aspirations of Syrian refugees in Turkey in 2018/19 under conditions of an ongoing crisis in Syria at the time, the associated uncertainty about the future, and forced transnational family separations, as well as against the backdrop of increasingly precarious living conditions for Syrians in Turkey. Three possible future options were considered: (1) remaining in Turkey, (2) returning to Syria, and (3) onward migration to a third country, particularly to Europe. In addition to respondents’ aspirations, the study also investigated their actual capacities and resources to realize migration, as well as the living conditions shaping these decisions.
• A particular focus was placed on the role of transnational family networks. The Syrian civil war has torn many families apart and dispersed them across multiple countries. The study examined how these forced separations—with family members in Syria, Turkey, and Europe—influence individual migration decisions.

• Previous research on migration aspirations has primarily focused on individuals in countries of origin and on voluntary migration. This study expands the research in several ways:
• Migration under conditions of crisis: The study examines migration aspirations within a continuum of crises—initially civil war and displacement, followed by precarious living conditions in the host country, and later economic crises and growing hostility toward refugees.
• Refugees in transit or first-asylum countries: Unlike most studies, this research does not focus on individuals in their country of origin but on refugees who have already arrived in a first, safe country. Their legal status and living conditions are shaped by precarity, temporality, and uncertainty.
• Immobility: Migration studies tend to focus heavily on the relatively small share of people who actually migrate. The majority—who remain in place, whether voluntarily or involuntarily—is often neglected. This study therefore also includes Syrian refugees who did not move on but remained in Turkey.
• Transnational family networks: Although the importance of family for migration is widely acknowledged in theory, detailed quantitative analyses are lacking, particularly in the context of forced migration. This study systematically differentiates between various family relationships (spouses, children, parents, grandparents, siblings) and their respective locations (country of origin, country of residence, third country).
• Temporality and uncertainty: The study captures the high degree of uncertainty and the temporal dynamics of migration aspirations under crisis conditions, showing how priorities shift over time.

1. Empirically document the migration aspirations of Syrian refugees in Turkey with regard to remaining, returning, and onward migration.
2. Identify the determinants of migration aspirations, the drivers of mobility and immobility and especially the role of transnational family networks.
3. Quantify actual migration capacities. 
   Analyze the interactions between family networks and other including cognitive factors such as life satisfaction, education, and ethnic affiliation.
4. Provide empirically grounded findings for policymakers in the EU, Germany, and Turkey.

• Survey design: Quantitative cross-sectional survey with around 1,900 adult Syrians in Turkey between November 2018 and May 2019. 
• Sampling procedure: Multi-stage sampling procedure due to the lack of representative population registers: selection of provinces, cities, and districts based on the shares of 
  the Syrian population, and randomized selection of households (random walks). 
• Instruments: Structured questionnaire including questions on migration aspirations, the places of residence of different family members, living conditions and satisfaction in Turkey, and perceptions of living conditions in Europe. 
• Methods of analysis: Descriptive analyses of the distribution of migration aspirations, multiple logistic regression models to identify determinants, and interaction analyses to examine the interplay of family networks with other factors. 

The survey shows that the majority of respondents (53.3%) wanted to remain in Turkey in 2018/2019 and, after displacement, became more or less voluntarily immobile again. Just under a quarter (22%) expressed the wish to migrate onward to a European country, with Germany mentioned most frequently, followed by Sweden. 
With regard to return to Syria, there was extreme uncertainty: at that point I time, only 3% agreed with returning, 20% rejected it, while the large majority chose the response “depending on the situation” (63%) or “I don’t know” (14%).
A central finding is also the gap between aspirations and capabilities: according to the respondents, only very few declared having sufficient financial resources to finance the journey to Europe. About 96% selected the lowest response option on a scale from 1 to 7 (1 = strongly disagree) for the statement “I have enough money to travel to Europe.” Among those with aspirations for onward migration, only around 6% had already tried to apply for an EU visa, and only 4% had actually attempted to reach Europe irregularly. 
For onward migration to Europe or another country, transnational family networks proved to be the strongest predictor. Respondents with family members in Europe were about three times as likely to want to migrate onward as those without family in Europe. The study differentiates here by specific family members. Respondents whose spouse did not live in Turkey or Syria showed higher aspirations for onward migration than those living with their partner in Turkey. The presence of children in Turkey was not directly associated with individual migration aspirations, but it did play a role in family-related considerations (“Where would my family be better off?”). Other factors associated with aspirations for onward migration included, for example, higher education and the degree of respondents’ dissatisfaction with living conditions in Turkey. The study also identifies interactions with regard to onward migration aspirations, for example between dissatisfaction with living conditions in Turkey and the country of residence of partners. Temporal shifts were also apparent, from immediate security needs to long-term considerations regarding rights, economic opportunities, and family reunification. 

The study demonstrates that the potential volume of migration from Turkey to Europe was far lower than often assumed in public discourse at that time. The fact that family networks are the strongest driver of onward migration underlines how important the urge for family unity is, which ultimately also affects refugees’ processes of arrival and integration in host countries, for example, when people are unable to focus on language acquisition and job searching because they are worried about family members remaining behind. Legal pathways to family reunification should therefore be improved. This is likely not only to reduce the costs of integration measures, but also to reduce irregular migration. At the same time, measures that promote the well-being of Syrian refugee families and enable staying in Turkey should be continued—both to improve living conditions and to reduce onward migration pressure. 

Forced transnational families are families that have been involuntarily scattered across several countries as a result of flight and displacement. Unlike transnational families in the context of voluntary labor migration, where spatial separation is more self-determined and planned, separation in the context of forced migration is often much more unplanned and coerced. This forced separation creates complex dilemmas: the desire for family reunification conflicts with care responsibilities toward family members in different countries, with the lack of financial and legal opportunities for migration, and with uncertainties about the future in the country of origin. 

Migration under crisis conditions differs from voluntary migration in several key respects:

• Threat: Conflicts and unrest disrupt everyday life and endanger economic, social, and physical security.
• Constrained agency: Decisions about fleeing still exist, but they are heavily restricted and often neither free nor well planned.
• High uncertainty: Before and after flight, decisions must be made under unclear and rapidly changing conditions.
• Continuum of crises: The example of Syria illustrates an interplay of war, displacement, precarious living conditions, economic crises, and pandemic.
• Temporality: Migration decisions are dynamic and are repeatedly reassessed depending on the context (security, education, legal situation).

• Düvell, F. (2019) Are there really 3.6 million refugees in Turkey or could there be considerably fewer? DeZIM Briefing Notes 1. Berlin: Deutsches Zentrum für Integrations- und Migrationsforschung (DeZIM).
• Düvell, F., Schiefer, D., Sağiroğlu, A. Z., & Mann, L. (2021). How Many Syrian Refugees in Turkey Want to Migrate to Europe and Can Actually Do So? Results of a Survey Among 1,900 Syrians. DeZIM Research Notes (DRN 05/21). Berlin: Deutsches Zentrum für Integrations- und Migrationsforschung (DeZIM).
• Schiefer, D., Düvell, F., & Sağiroğlu, A. Z. (2023). Migration aspirations in forced transnational families: the case of Syrians in Turkey. Migration Studies, 11(3), 383-416. https://doi.org/10.1093/migration/mnad020