Perceptions of Peace and Migration Aspirations in Societies Affected by Violent Conflicts

The literature on migration aspirations focuses on understanding how individual and contextual factors shape individuals' desires, aspirations or plans to migrate. Empirical research has only partially explored how the determinants of migration aspirations are shaped specifically in societies characterized by violent conflict. By linking the academic literature on migration aspirations and conflict studies, this research project addresses this part of the literature. The research question of this project investigates how people's different conceptions of 'peace' influence migration aspirations at the individual level.

While existing research primarily considers structural and economic factors, there is a lack of studies that systematically incorporate subjective notions of peace in conflict-affected societies  into the analysis of migration decisions.

Extend the consideration of key determinants of migration aspirations in conflict-affected societies by perceptions surrounding peace.

We analyze data from representative surveys in five countries (Colombia, Venezuela, Cameroon, the Philippines, and Tunisia) using multivariate regression analyses. The survey data originate from the ‘PEACEptions’ project, which was coordinated by Prof. Dr. Sabine Kurtenbach at the GIGA German Institute for Global and Area Studies and conducted in cooperation with the Friedrich Ebert Foundation (FES).

• Across the countries of study, migration aspirations tend to be higher among people who associate peace with participation, inclusion, or access to rights, while more stability- or tranquility-oriented understandings of peace, as well as certain family circumstances, are linked to lower intentions to migrate. 
• In Colombia, for example, migration aspirations are higher among groups emphasizing participatory and inclusive notions of peace, while more conservative or security-focused understandings of peace are linked to lower aspirations. 
• In Tunisia, seeing peace as participation and inclusion similarly aligns with higher migration aspirations, whereas more stability-oriented views of peace correspond with lower intentions to migrate. 
• In Venezuela, migration aspirations rise when peace is associated with access to rights, while certain family circumstances—such as having children—tend to reduce the likelihood of wanting to migrate. 

"Conceptions of peace" refer to the individual or collective ideas about what constitutes peace, which conditions characterize it, and how it can be achieved or maintained in a society.