Immigrant German Election Study II: A Local Panel Study of Immigrant-Origin Voters During the Electoral Campaign of the 2021 Bundestag Election

Data-Method-Monitoring Cluster

Project head: Prof. Dr. Sabrina J. Mayer

Never before have so many German voters had a migration background as in the 2017 Bundestag elections, with more than 10 per cent or 6.3 million belonging to this group, i.e. they and/or at least one of their parents was born abroad. At the same time, it became apparent that this group is also becoming increasingly important in the election campaign. For example, Russian-Germans were specifically addressed by the Alternative for Germany, and the Alliance of German Democrats, an ethnic micro-party, directly addressed voters of Turkish origin. While the importance of immigrant voters is thus increasing, no effects of election campaigns on their voting behaviour have yet been studied.

As part of the first Immigrant German Election Study (IMGES-I, October 2016 to September 2020), we surveyed two representative samples of Russian Germans and Germans of Turkish origin and conducted comprehensive analyses of their voting behaviour. IMGES-I focused on representative data collection in a cross-sectional design. The project proposed here, IMGES-II, goes a step further both theoretically and methodologically and now for the first time includes a dynamic perspective in which individuals from a local context are surveyed multiple times in the context of the 2021 Bundestag election campaign. This follow-up application is based on the research questions of how voters with a migration background react to election campaigns, what effects these have on their voting behaviour (turnout and election content) and campaign behaviour (conversations about the election campaign, attempts to convince others, etc.) and how they react to group-specific actions of parties, candidates and political organisations, as well as to media coverage. The research project thus allows the investigation of the question of how election campaigns influence voters with a migration background in comparison to the majority population.

The core component of IMGES-II is the implementation of a panel study in Duisburg, which is planned in the context of the 2021 federal election campaign with random samples of (1) Germans of post-Soviet and (2) Germans of Turkish origin, as well as (3) Germans without a migration background (as a comparison group). Respondents will be interviewed in a total of four main waves over a period of seven months. In addition, data on the local and national context will be collected and linked to the survey data. Finally, qualitative interviews will be conducted with a theoretically selected subsample in order to examine possible causal mechanisms of election campaigns in more detail.

Funding: German Research Foundation (Third-party funding)

Cooperation partner:

Prof. Dr Achim Goerres (University of Duisburg-Essen); Prof. Dr Dennis Christopher Spies (Heinrich Heine University Düsseldorf)