Migration pathways: goals, interactions and their consequences

In national and European law, complex legal provisions as well as administrative procedures and infrastructures regulate “regular” access to the territory and the specific rights associated with it for different groups of migrants. It has long been a stated political goal (e.g., in German coalition agreements, the EU Pact on Migration and Asylum, and the Global Compact for Migration) to replace “irregular” migration with “regular” migration. However, the extent to which this can succeed, and under what conditions, remains contested. Beyond the presumed dichotomy of regular and irregular migration, the interactions between different migration channels (including various forms of labor migration, educational migration, family migration, and humanitarian migration) are particularly significant and insufficiently researched. The project aims to expand knowledge on these existing interactions by using different methods and case studies 

The project is implemented in several modules. It is also designed in such a way that new or adapted modules can be added to address current developments and emerging questions. 

1. Module: Policy Monitoring & Knowledge Exchange 

This module involves continuous monitoring and documentation of project-relevant debates and decisions regarding migration policy. Our focus is on Germany, but relevant developments at the EU level and in other European countries are also included in the monitor. As part of this module, we regularly comment on current developments in migration policy and participate in various discussion and knowledge transfer formats. 

2. Module: Complexity in German Migration Policy 

This module examines the evolution of complexity in German migration law. We focus on migration regulations (e.g., in the German Residence Act) with the aim of (1) developing indicators to measure the complexity of migration rules over time, and (2) studying how the complexity of German migration law has evolved from 1990 to 2025. The main contribution of this module is to develop and test the methodological tools needed to measure complexity in the context of migration policy. We also investigate to what extent the effectiveness of migration policy—such as in attracting skilled workers—is influenced not only by implementation processes or substantive legal design, but also by the complexity embedded in the regulations themselves. 

3. Module: “Migration Diplomacy” – Migration Agreements 

This module analyzes how different migration channels interact by examining recent migration agreements, with a particular focus on the partnership with Kenya. It investigates how such agreements are designed, what objectives they pursue, and to what extent they aim to redirect migration movements through expanded regular pathways. 

4. Module: Regularization in Practice – Implementation of the Chancenaufenthaltsgesetz (Opportunity Residence Act)

The Chancenaufenthaltsgesetz (Opportunity Residence Act), in force since December 31, 2022, provides a pathway to secure residence for individuals with tolerated status who have lived in Germany for at least five years. It is crucial to examine the implementation of this residence permit and to assess whether the regulation truly creates long-term or permanent residence prospects in Germany. Case studies of regularization programs in other European countries have shown that migrants often face substantial challenges in meeting the requirements for long-term residence permits. Building on these findings, this module investigates to what extent migrants obtain the new status and  transition to a long-term or permanent residence permit—and why or why not. To address our research question, we combine quantitative and qualitative data from various sources, including statistical data on application numbers, position papers, semi-structured interviews with migrants who have undergone the application process, and interviews with actors in foreigners’ authorities, civil society organizations, and legal counseling services (e.g., the advisory office of the Commissioner of the Berlin Senate for Integration and Migration). We pay particular attention to how the regulation affects vulnerable groups such as single mothers. 

5. Module: Skilled Worker Immigration 

Germany faces an increasing shortage of skilled and labor workers. Despite this challenge, Germany is not among the countries offering a particularly attractive environment for qualified migrants (according to the OECD Indicators of Talent Attractiveness, ITA). To reduce the shortage of skilled workers and attract more labor migrants from abroad, the German government adopted the “Act to Further Develop Skilled Worker Immigration” in 2023. As stated in the justification of the law, its main goal was to facilitate the immigration of skilled workers with different qualification profiles. The law is part of a longer-term process of liberalizing German labor migration policy. This module tracks the implementation of the law, particularly the introduction of the so-called Opportunity Card, the first points-based system for governing labor migration in Germany. The creation of this system could represent a major change to the German labor migration framework. Using statistical data, we examine how many migrants have entered Germany through the Opportunity Card and how many have remained in the country. Additionally, semi-structured interviews are planned with holders of the Opportunity Card and other relevant stakeholders. The goal of these interviews is to capture experiences in the implementation process and identify potential areas for improvement. In this module we also investigate the future Work-and-Stay Agency that Germany is establishing to coordinate labor-migration–related processes. 

Up to now, there has been a lack of empirical research that systematically examines the complex interactions between different migration pathways. Moreover, there is a shortage of robust data that would allow for generalizable conclusions about the role of different pathways such as labor, skilled, or humanitarian migration.

• Analysis of the interactions between different migration pathways. 
• Examination of the conditions under which policy measures to promote regular migration can be effective. 
• Assessment of the complexity of German migration policy. 
• Empirical analysis of skilled labor immigration, particularly the implementation of new admission pathways such as the “Chancenkarte” (Opportunity Card). 
• Investigation of the conditions under which regularization instruments, such as the Chancenaufenthaltsgesetz, actually enable migrants to achieve long-term residence and participation prospects.  

The approach consists of a modular research design that includes several thematic modules and can flexibly respond to new policy developments. Quantitative and qualitative methods are combined to analyse the complex dynamics of migration policy comprehensively and from multiple perspectives.

• The Opportunity Card enjoys a clear demand: Since its introduction in June 2024, a significant increase in the number of applications has been observed, indicating substantial interest in this new immigration pathway. 
• Initial analyses of the German Residence Act show that the complexity of migration law does not develop linearly but is characterized by punctuated, sometimes sharp changes—suggesting that complexity itself constitutes a distinct explanatory dimension of policy change. 
• The Chancenaufenthalt offers an important—but unevenly accessible—pathway to more secure residence, with many applicants facing structural and administrative hurdles; outcomes vary by local implementation practices and disproportionately affect vulnerable groups such as single mothers. 

By “pathways” we mean the different mechanisms through which migrants can enter a country and obtain a residence status. These include, for example, labor and educational migration, family reunification, as well as humanitarian pathways such as resettlement or admission programs.

• Engler, Marcus; Palop-García, Pau (2025): Ein Jahr Chancenkarte: Erste Bilanz des deutschen Punktesystems für Fachkräfteeinwanderung. DeZIM Briefing Notes, Berlin: Deutsches Zentrum für Integrations- und Migrationsforschung (DeZIM). 
• Pedroza, Luicy; Palop-García, Pau (2025): Tracing the Pathways for Labor Migrants in Thirty States: The Nexus between Immigration Regulations and Immigrant Rights. Comparative Politics. DOI: 10.5129/001041525X17363417469326. 
• Pedroza, Luicy; Palop-García, Pau (2024): The design and use of migration indices and indicators. In: Zapata-Barrero, Ricard; Vintila, Daniela (Hg.): How to Do Migration Research. Cheltenham: Edward Elgar Publishing, 134-142. DOI: 10.4337/9781035306855.00025. 
• Engler, Marcus (2024): Auslagerung von Asylverfahren – Chance oder Risiko? Heimatkunde - Migrationspolitisches Portal, Berlin: Heinrich-Böll-Stiftung. 
• Engler, Marcus (2024): Ein Plädoyer für zukunftsorientierte Migrationspolitik. Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung. 
• Yanaşmayan, Zeynep; Rischke, Ramona (2023): Stellungnahme zur öffentlichen Anhörung des Deutschen Bundestages zum Gemeinsamen Europäischen Asylsystem. Ausschussdrucksache 20(4)197E, Deutscher Bundestag. 
• Palop-García, Pau; Yanaşmayan, Zeynep; Engler, Marcus; Rischke, Ramona (2023): Stellungnahme zur öffentlichen Anhörung des Deutschen Bundestages zum Entwurf eines Gesetzes zur Weiterentwicklung der Fachkräfteeinwanderung. Ausschussdrucksache 20(4)219J, Deutscher Bundestag. 
• Palop-García, Pau; Engler, Marcus (2023): Hat die Chancenkarte eine Chance? Eine Analyse des neuen deutschen Punktesystems zur Steuerung der Erwerbsmigration. DeZIM Briefing Notes 11, Berlin: Deutsches Zentrum für Integrations- und Migrationsforschung (DeZIM). 
• Engler, Marcus (2023): Germany after “2015”: Still a country of immigration and asylum? In: Kmezić, Marko; Prodromidou, Alexandra; Gkasis, Pavlos (Hg.): Migration, EU Integration and the Balkan Route. London: Routledge, 130-147. DOI: 10.4324/9780367823405-9.