Paralysis or Mobilization?

The project examines the societal impact of the 2024 and 2025 state and federal election results on people living in Germany. It focuses particularly on population groups that are disproportionately affected by right-wing populist and right-wing extremist political agendas, including migrants and racialised minorities. Using an experimental research design, the study analyses effects on political attitudes, mental health, institutional trust, intentions to emigrate, and processes of political mobilisation and demobilisation. The analysis is based on data from the DeZIM.panel, which allows for a nuanced and longitudinal assessment of individual perceptions, experiences, and responses. The overall aim is to deepen understanding of the social and political consequences of recent electoral developments.

So far, there is hardly any empirical research in the German context showing whether election results affect well-being, emigration intentions, or political engagement. Using a quasi-experimental design within panel studies allows for causal statements, which previous correlational studies could not provide.

The project examines whether and how election results of right-wing populist parties affect the population, for example regarding mental health, trust, emigration intentions, and political mobilization. Using an experimental design within representative panel studies, direct effects are to be identified. The goal is to provide a reliable picture of societal impacts that can be used for research, policy, and public debate.

The DeZIM.panel is being used as the survey infrastructure for the project, and a quasi-experimental design is being applied. The state elections in eastern Germany (Saxony and Thuringia) in 2024 and the federal election in 2025 represent the treatments. Respondents to the DeZIM.panel are randomly divided into two groups. One group will be surveyed in the week before the elections (control group), the other after the elections, starting at 6 p.m. on election day and with the first projections (around 7 p.m.), as well as on the three following days (treatment group). Random assignment allows confounding factors to be largely excluded from the analyses.
However, in order to methodologically rule out the possibility that the treatment and control groups differ systematically before the elections, the dependent variables are already collected as a baseline in the regular surveys before the elections. To identify long-term effects, the dependent variables are collected again a few months after the elections. With a view to the 2025 federal election, this also allows an assessment of whether the treatment effect of the election has already been (partially) offset by previous survey results.
The “average treatment effect” is then estimated by comparing mean values. In addition, separate treatment effects are estimated for vulnerable groups and for eastern and western Germany.