Rethinking Migration Policy: The Impact of Skilled Labor Shortages

The project examines how labor and skills shortages shape public attitudes toward migration. Using two innovative causal experiments in the DeZIM.panel, we analyze how people with and without a migration background respond to information about the contribution migrants make to alleviating labor shortages. We assess not only differences across different population groups but also whether such information leads to lasting changes in attitudes. The project addresses important research gaps and provides a new scientific basis for an evidence-based migration policy.

To date, no studies have experimentally examined how information about the contribution of migrants to alleviating labor shortages affects attitudes toward migration. Moreover, the perspectives and reactions of people with a migration background remain largely overlooked in existing research — the oversampling in the DeZIM.panel allows us to examine this systematically for the first time.

The project pursues three main objectives: First, we examine how people in Germany perceive the role of migration in addressing labor and skills shortages. Second, using an experimental approach, we analyze how information about the contribution of people with a migration background influences attitudes toward migration. Third, we assess whether these effects differ across population groups and whether they persist over time.

We conduct an information experiment and a vignette experiment in the DeZIM.panel, in which respondents with and without a migration background receive targeted information about the contribution of migrants to alleviating labor shortages. We then measure the effects of these experiments on attitudes toward migration. This includes assessing how strongly respondents perceive the contribution of migrants to securing the labor supply to be, which measures they consider important for addressing labor shortages, and how they assess the overall economic impact of migration.