Sea rescue in the Mediterranean

Following two major shipwrecks off the coast of Lampedusa in the fall of 2013, the rescue of migrants in the central Mediterranean has become a highly controversial issue. Even years later, heated debates about sea rescue remain highly salient. At the heart of the debate is the question of whether and to what extent search and rescue (SAR) operations have a so-called “pull effect” on migration. Critics of SAR argue that the presence of rescue ships increases the number of crossings and thus the number of deaths in the Mediterranean. However, this correlation has long been contested and under researched. The project investigated the causal effect of SAR activities in migration movements and refuted the “pull factor hypothesis.”

The project addresses the gap between political debate and empirical evidence by systematically examining whether and how search and rescue operations influence migration.

• Empirical testing of the pull-effect hypothesis 
• Contributing to a fact-based migration debate 
• Providing scientifically sound evidence for policymakers and the public 

• Quantitative analyses of international datasets on migration, search and rescue activities, political measures, and external influencing factors using machine learning and causal inference. 
• In addition, 20 qualitative interviews were conducted with government authorities, international organizations, and international and local civil society actors from Italy, Malta, Libya, and Tunisia.

The research clearly demonstrates that there is no “pull effect” caused by search and rescue operations in the central Mediterranean. Migration is primarily driven by other factors. 

Results from qualitative interviews with key actors involved further show that there are several distinct types of risks related to maritime crossings. Migrants are largely aware of the risks, some of which are racialized and gendered. 

• Migration and sea rescue policy should be based on empirical evidence. 
• State sea rescue activities should be expanded, and private sea rescue activities should not be criminalized. 

• Alejandra Rodríguez Sánchez, Julian Wucherpfennig, Ramona Rischke, Stefano Maria Iacus: „Searchandrescue in the Central Mediterranean Route does not induce migration: Predictive modeling to answer causal queries in migration research“, Nature Portfolio (ed.): Scientific Reports (2023) 13:110114, DOI: 10.1038/s41598-023-38119-4. 
• Podcast: Push and Pull, Episode 6: Myth, Misconception and Morality in the Political Debate