Climate change-induced migration

The migration–development nexus offers a sharp lens to study how actors link mobility with climate mitigation and adaptation. This project examines how IGAD stakeholders (Horn of Africa, Nile Valley, Great Lakes) and German/EU actors construct, frame and contest their interests when connecting migration agendas to adaptation/mitigation priorities. It also interrogates the naturalisation of climate-related hazards (e.g., droughts, desertification),  as purely “natural” events, which tend to obscure anthropogenic drivers (industrial emissions and historical inequities) and the socio-political causes of climate-related mobility. 

In addition, the study analyzes how the figure of the climate-change-induced migrant from the IGAD region is constructed at Europe’s external borders in North Africa (notably Tunisia and Libya), and how EU extraterritorial border- and asylum-control measures delegated to African states shape those constructions, often reinforcing exclusionary framings while narrowing pathways that would treat mobility as a legitimate form of adaptation. 

The project deliberately moves away from dominant perspectives from industrialised countries and places African regional agendas and agency, particularly those of IGAD, at the centre of its analysis. At the same time, the study problematises the widespread naturalisation of climate-related events as ‘natural disasters’ and highlights their anthropogenic and political-economic drivers. Finally, it explicitly examines how the ‘figure’ of the climate-induced migrant is discursively constructed – a hitherto neglected issue that is central to policy-making and protection instruments . 

• Describe how IGAD actors and actors from Germany/EU frame the link between migration and climate, which problems and goals they emphasize, and to what extent they present climate-related risks as natural rather than human-made. 
• Identify where the goals of both sides overlap (e.g., “safe and orderly” mobility) and where they diverge (e.g., open regional mobility vs. limiting irregular entry), as well as the political trade-offs that result. 
• Examine how the EU border and asylum measures outside Europe (e.g., pre-screening, readmissions) shape the figure of the “climate migrant” and restrict political room for maneuver. 

We conducted semi-structured interviews with practitioners and officials from the Horn/East Africa and Germany/EU. We complemented the interviews with systematic document analysis of policies, reports, grey literature, and media. 

• Across the different actors from the IGAD and German/European side, we find a shared commitment to “safe, orderly, and regular” mobility, enhanced climate financing, and stronger knowledge and data systems.  
• At the same time, IGAD promotes freedom of movement as a core strategy for climate adaptation and aims to expand regular intra-regional mobility pathways, whereas Germany/EU actors prioritize security-oriented approaches over protection and risk-management perspectives.  
• German implementation programs oscillate between curbing irregular migration and supporting regional mobility, yet overall, EU and German instruments and budgets remain heavily geared toward containment. 

• Hagos, Samuel, Aurelia Streit, and Pau Palop-García. Climate Mobility Between Adaptation and Control? Contested Agendas in IGAD–Germany Cooperation in Africa. Territory, Politics, Governance, forthcoming. 
• Hagos, Samuel; Palop-García, Pau (2024). Framing climate change-induced displacement: Attributing disasters to natural causes. Public Anthropologist. 
• Hagos, Samuel (2023). Understanding the horn of Africa through a geographic lens. San Francisco: Culturico. Available: culturico.com/2023/08/25/understanding-the-horn-of-africa-through-a-geographic-lens/ 
• Streit, Aurelia, and Pau Palop-García. 2024. “Wie Kann Ein Positives Narrativ von Migration in Krisenzeiten Schützen? – Lehren Im Umgang Mit Dem Klimawandel Aus Dem Horn von Afrika.” Migration & Integration.